Jared Diamond on 'Collapse'
By Dipika Kohli
For Northwest Science News
Scientist Jared Diamond came to Seattle on Jan. 12 to talk about the reasons why some societies flourish while others fail - and how those reasons are reflected in our response to crises ranging from AIDS to Hurricane Katrina.
A mix of all age groups nearly filled Town Hall for Diamond’s talk, based on his book "Collapse."
Diamond won a Pulitzer Prize for his earlier bestseller, "Guns, Germs and Steel," which describes why some human civilizations survive challenges that others can’t.
He said today’s societies are increasingly at risk of failure because more people are inhabiting the planet, consuming resources faster than ever. With globalization, slight shifts in the affairs of even small, remote countries affect the world's geopolitical equilibrium. (In the past, he said, one of the countries the U.S. government considered insignificant in this way was Afghanistan.)
Many of the problems faced by societies today are the same ones that faced now-bygone societies: for example, climate change and limited resources of wood, fuel and water. How people adapt to those problems affects whether they win or lose.
He cited one example from the South Pacific: a civilization that was clever enough to devise ways to shape monolithic statues - some as tall as 33 feet and as heavy as 90 tons - without stone tools, and to haul them without wheels. In the end, the society resorted to civil war and even cannibalism.
"So why did the people of Easter Island tear down and break the statues their ancestors built so painstakingly?" Diamond asked.
The professor from the University of California at Los Angeles paused, perhaps to scan the crowd for a raised hand, before giving the answer.
Easter Island once had ample forests, he said, but over eight centuries the people depleted this resource. They cut down the last tree in 1680.
Without wood, they couldn’t build the canoes they needed to harpoon dolphins. Thus isolated from outside help and unable to gather food, the people turned ugly. Diamond said "the meanest thing you could say to someone was, ‘The flesh of your mother is stuck between my teeth.’"
Declining forest cover was also a problem in old Japan, too. But the Tokugawa-era shoguns knew to leave wood resources for their children, so they worked across regions to replenish trees, Diamond said. Today three-quarters of Japan is forest.
Successful societies learn to conserve resources. Or they produce them. Or they make friends with reliable neighbors.
Most importantly, societies that succeed are willing to let go of old ideas. Pious Scandinavians who settled in North America long before Columbus were unwilling to learn how to fish from the pagan Inuit. There was plenty of meat, but the settlers starved, and the Scandinavians retreated from the New World.
If modern America is to avoid a similar collapse, her citizens must "reappraise core values of isolationism and consumerism," Diamond said.
Americans have been led to think it’s OK for "anyone to do as he or she darn pleases," he said. But people here must stop consuming so many of the world’s resources. Americans also have to learn the oceans aren’t barriers that will protect us from problems elsewhere.
Diamond said that his research turned up one thread common to societies on the brink.
"Are the elite in a society able to insulate themselves against disaster?" he asked. If so, that’s a caution sign. If the top tiers aren’t affected by poverty and disease, for example, they won’t be motivated to deal with the society's big problems.
Rich people in America live behind gates, Diamond said. They’re able to buy private health insurance and pension plans, too, skirting nonexistent or shaky systems left for the less well-off.
Then there’s New Orleans.
"The Dutch take very good care of their dikes," Diamond said, because both rich and poor live within flood basins. Not so in New Orleans. No one invested in the engineering infrastructure (probably a few hundred million dollars’ worth, he said) that could have prevented the $300 billion flood disaster born of Hurricane Katrina.
Solving long-term problems works out better for the economy, Diamond said.
On his visits to Third World countries, people tell him they’re most worried about public health, family planning and the environment, he said. It would take $27 billion to ease the world’s problems with AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, he said. "And how much are we spending on weeks and months of a major war? ... There are 20 countries waiting to be the next Iraq."
Diamond's assessment may sound gloomy, but he says he's actually "cautiously optimistic."
Modern communication technologies can keep people informed of current "messes ... or successes." Meanwhile, today’s archaeologists and historians can help us learn the lessons of past messes and successes.
For Northwest Science News
Scientist Jared Diamond came to Seattle on Jan. 12 to talk about the reasons why some societies flourish while others fail - and how those reasons are reflected in our response to crises ranging from AIDS to Hurricane Katrina.
A mix of all age groups nearly filled Town Hall for Diamond’s talk, based on his book "Collapse."
Diamond won a Pulitzer Prize for his earlier bestseller, "Guns, Germs and Steel," which describes why some human civilizations survive challenges that others can’t.
He said today’s societies are increasingly at risk of failure because more people are inhabiting the planet, consuming resources faster than ever. With globalization, slight shifts in the affairs of even small, remote countries affect the world's geopolitical equilibrium. (In the past, he said, one of the countries the U.S. government considered insignificant in this way was Afghanistan.)
Many of the problems faced by societies today are the same ones that faced now-bygone societies: for example, climate change and limited resources of wood, fuel and water. How people adapt to those problems affects whether they win or lose.
He cited one example from the South Pacific: a civilization that was clever enough to devise ways to shape monolithic statues - some as tall as 33 feet and as heavy as 90 tons - without stone tools, and to haul them without wheels. In the end, the society resorted to civil war and even cannibalism.
"So why did the people of Easter Island tear down and break the statues their ancestors built so painstakingly?" Diamond asked.
The professor from the University of California at Los Angeles paused, perhaps to scan the crowd for a raised hand, before giving the answer.
Easter Island once had ample forests, he said, but over eight centuries the people depleted this resource. They cut down the last tree in 1680.
Without wood, they couldn’t build the canoes they needed to harpoon dolphins. Thus isolated from outside help and unable to gather food, the people turned ugly. Diamond said "the meanest thing you could say to someone was, ‘The flesh of your mother is stuck between my teeth.’"
Declining forest cover was also a problem in old Japan, too. But the Tokugawa-era shoguns knew to leave wood resources for their children, so they worked across regions to replenish trees, Diamond said. Today three-quarters of Japan is forest.
Successful societies learn to conserve resources. Or they produce them. Or they make friends with reliable neighbors.
Most importantly, societies that succeed are willing to let go of old ideas. Pious Scandinavians who settled in North America long before Columbus were unwilling to learn how to fish from the pagan Inuit. There was plenty of meat, but the settlers starved, and the Scandinavians retreated from the New World.
If modern America is to avoid a similar collapse, her citizens must "reappraise core values of isolationism and consumerism," Diamond said.
Americans have been led to think it’s OK for "anyone to do as he or she darn pleases," he said. But people here must stop consuming so many of the world’s resources. Americans also have to learn the oceans aren’t barriers that will protect us from problems elsewhere.
Diamond said that his research turned up one thread common to societies on the brink.
"Are the elite in a society able to insulate themselves against disaster?" he asked. If so, that’s a caution sign. If the top tiers aren’t affected by poverty and disease, for example, they won’t be motivated to deal with the society's big problems.
Rich people in America live behind gates, Diamond said. They’re able to buy private health insurance and pension plans, too, skirting nonexistent or shaky systems left for the less well-off.
Then there’s New Orleans.
"The Dutch take very good care of their dikes," Diamond said, because both rich and poor live within flood basins. Not so in New Orleans. No one invested in the engineering infrastructure (probably a few hundred million dollars’ worth, he said) that could have prevented the $300 billion flood disaster born of Hurricane Katrina.
Solving long-term problems works out better for the economy, Diamond said.
On his visits to Third World countries, people tell him they’re most worried about public health, family planning and the environment, he said. It would take $27 billion to ease the world’s problems with AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, he said. "And how much are we spending on weeks and months of a major war? ... There are 20 countries waiting to be the next Iraq."
Diamond's assessment may sound gloomy, but he says he's actually "cautiously optimistic."
Modern communication technologies can keep people informed of current "messes ... or successes." Meanwhile, today’s archaeologists and historians can help us learn the lessons of past messes and successes.
posted by Dipika at 3:57 PM
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