The Kolbert Report on climate change

We have two reports from Elizabeth Kolbert's lecture on global climate change, presented at Town Hall Seattle. Read on for the full story (actually, stories) and for our "save the date" notice of a future meeting with Kolbert:

By Hannah Hickey
Northwest Science Writers Association

A packed room in the basement of Town Hall heard a stark statement: It’s time we face the facts about global warming.

The speaker was Elizabeth Kolbert, author of an award-winning series on climate change published last spring in The New Yorker magazine. The articles are now expanded into a book, “Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature and Climate Change.” She spoke on March 23 as part of the Seattle Science Lectures.

Kolbert doesn’t mince words. After reviewing the history of climate science, and visiting communities bearing the brunt of current weather shifts, her 30,000-word New Yorker series concluded: “It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing.”

Kolbert’s lecture was similarly unsettling. She underlined that we understand the process behind climate change and can forecast its devastating effects, yet so far we have failed to act.

“Global warming is an example of the power of science, but also of its impotence,” Kolbert said. “To a remarkable degree we can look into the future and see where we are headed. And yet we choose not to see.”

A brief history of global warming
In her talk, Kolbert reviewed the science that underpins today’s understanding of global warming. As far back as the 1850s, Irish physicist John Tyndall showed that some gases in the air, like oxygen and nitrogen, let solar radiation pass through freely, while other gases — notably carbon dioxide and water vapor — do not. Tyndall realized that without these gases, average temperatures on Earth would be a frigid zero degrees Fahrenheit.

A few decades later, Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius used Tyndall’s finding to research how atmospheric changes might have influenced past climates. Arrhenius also realized that by burning fossil fuels, which produces carbon dioxide gas, industrialization would inevitably lead to warmer global temperatures. He coined the term “greenhouse effect” in 1896. Using painstaking calculations, Arrhenius estimated that doubling the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would increase temperatures on Earth by 9 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit. Climate models have improved since then (equivalent estimates now predict only 3.5 to 7 degrees warming), but the basic principle has remained unchallenged for the past 150 years. Maybe it’s understandable that Arrhenius, being a Swede, viewed warmer temperatures as a change for the better.

“This story that I’ve just told is, in one sense, a scientific triumph,” Kolbert remarked. Right now there may be more climate researchers employed in Washington state alone, she suggested, than there were scientists working in Tyndall’s day. But when it comes to the impact of science on society, global warming research is “a pretty devastating story of failure.”

Fuel efficiency for motor vehicles peaked in the mid-1980s and decreased in the age of the SUV. While America puts out the most carbon dioxide emissions of any country, the U.S. government continues to avoid taking a position on global warming. Estimates show that if we don’t cut back on burning fossil fuels, carbon dioxide levels could triple by the end of the century. At that point, the changes in weather, sea level and living organisms will be so great that, in the words of NASA chief climate scientist James Hansen, the Earth will “constitute practically a different planet.”

Touring the ‘hot spots’ of climate change
Kolbert’s starting point for her articles was the northern village of Shishmaref, Alaska. Absent sea ice has made the island community vulnerable to winter storms, and in 2002 the residents voted to relocate to the mainland. (They are still waiting for the roughly $180 million required for the move.) Kolbert also visited other global warming landmarks: Greenland, where scientists drilling into glaciers show that historic changes in carbon dioxide levels were linked to sudden shifts in global climate; Fairbanks, where thawing permafrost has opened enormous cracks on the University of Alaska’s campus; and the city of New Orleans, dealing with the tragic aftermath of this year’s record-breaking hurricane season.

“We are creating enormous, quite possibly insuperable, difficulties for our children and grandchildren, and for what?” Kolbert asked the audience. “In the end, no good reason.”

Seattle’s plan to cut the gas
Mayor Greg Nickels introduced the speaker. She had participated earlier that day in what Nickels nicknamed “climatepalooza”: a series of events leading up to an announcement of Seattle’s plan to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

A little more than a year ago, “I had an epiphany,” Nickels said. “I decided global warming was an issue that was not far away or long into the future, but an issue that affects us directly.” After the United States failed to sign the Kyoto Protocol, Nickels launched a program last February for cities to voluntarily curb their emissions. By the evening of Kolbert’s lecture, 218 cities across the country had signed on to “meet or beat” Kyoto’s emissions targets.

The mayor called Kolbert “one of the most astute observers and reporters on this issue.”

Some audience members predicted the former New York Times reporter will sway discussions of climate change in this country. The question now is not whether climate change is happening, she says, but what we will do about it. In her words: “So much evidence has piled up that the debate — and I use that term advisedly — has to shift.”

If you missed the lecture, you can find a video recording on the Web here.

Coming soon…
NSWA members will have a chance to meet with Elizabeth Kolbert in early May when she returns on a book tour. Board member Michael Bradbury will be sending more details.

Another prominent writer on climate change, Australian zoologist Tim Flannery, is coming to town April 13. His book “The Weather Makers” has reportedly influenced Australian climate change policy.

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Editor's note: The tentative date for our meeting with Kolbert is sometime during the weekend of May 5-7, when she’ll be back in the area for an appearance at Third Place Books. Kolbert has a Web site associated with her book at ClimateCrash.org. NSWA's Flannery will speak at Town Hall Seattle, and we’re investigating opportunities to meet with him during his visit as well. Now, here's another perspective on Kolbert's Town Hall talk:

By Dipika Kohli
Northwest Science Writers Association

A roomful of science people pressed forward as journalist Elizabeth Kolbert tapped her microphone March 23 at Seattle's Town Hall. The author of last spring's three-part series* on climate change for The New Yorker readied herself to share firsthand observations of how humanity's actions are already reshaping the planet's landscape.

The most dramatic changes, she said, are happening in the Arctic.

Kolbert met geophysicists and chemists in Alaska and Greenland in her a quest to find out how serious a problem climate change really is. "Like a lot of people, I kept waiting for this story to be resolved," she said.

Now she says the fact that some still question human influence as a cause of climate change is "really comical, or it would be if it weren’t so scary."

Evidence of change is clear: Flowers open up a week earlier in New England. In the Northwest, the snowpack is melting 10 days earlier than it did 50 years ago. The year 2005 broke hurricane records. Lots of carbon is stored in permafrost that's starting to thaw. Kolbert said permafrost scientist Vladimir Romanovsky told her, "[Permafrost] is like a ready-use mix. Just add a little heat and it will start cooking."

She said people who say they're skeptical that human actions are the cause of climate change are either guilt-ridden, on a payroll or simply uninformed. "Fully 25 years ago, the changes we’re seeing were predicted by climate modelers," she said. So why is there still denial? "Problems that are hard to solve are also hard to acknowledge."

Recognizing the seriousness of climate change is even harder for those who don't interpret scientific graphs or models, since the effects of carbon loading today won't be apparent for several decades. "If it’s so bad," Kolbert said reluctant believers convince themselves, "I’d be feeling it by now."

Other than a few oil-producing states in the Persian Gulf, she said, the United States is among the biggest producers of carbon dioxide. Future generations will have to bear the negative consequences of our choices today, and for no particularly good reason.

Her concluding tone was dire. "I could end this talk by telling you to turn your lights off and save the world, but I’m not going to end that way," she said. "Climate change is going to be world-altering. I don’t mean inconvenient. I mean change in life-altering ways."

* You can read the articles here:
The Climate of Man - I
The Climate of Man - II
The Climate of Man - III
The Climate of Man - Interview

Don Brownlee on Stardust and more

Take a few dozen 3-D glasses, add a sprinkling of comet dust, a spoonful of speculation about extraterrestrial life, a dash of the intelligent-design debate and a scientific cliffhanger, and what do you get? Something a lot like NSWA's March 2 session at the University of Washington, featuring UW astronomer (and science writer) Donald Brownlee.

More than 25 science fans turned out to hear Brownlee talk about his work as principal investigator for NASA's Stardust mission and his science-writing experience as co-author of "Rare Earth" and "The Life and Death of Planet Earth."

Stardust was the star of Brownlee's show: During a seven-year mission, the NASA spacecraft flew through the cloud of dust surrounding Comet Wild 2, captured samples of that dust in a collector filled with ice-cube-sized blocks of an ultralight glassy material, then sent those samples back to Earth for study.

At the beginning of the talk, Brownlee handed out 3-D glasses for looking at slides of Comet Wild 2 in all its craggy glory. Then he flashed pictures and played videos that documented the Stardust capsule's fiery return to Earth.

The buildup to the return was a nail-biter, particularly because of 2004's crash landing of a similar sample-return capsule for the Genesis solar-wind mission. Extra reviews of Stardust's mission were ordered. "We were put through the wringer over the past year," Brownlee recalled. "NASA does not like to fail."

Fortunately, Stardust's capsule worked like a charm. "It was just in absolutely incredible shape," Brownlee said. "By the way, the Smithsonian is very interested in this. ... They don't have anything that went out from Earth [orbit] and came back except Apollo."

The flecks of comet dust were golden as well. Brownlee said he and his UW colleagues have worked on just two particles so far, but scientists around the world are already getting an unparalleled look at material thought to date back to the very beginnings of the solar system, more than 4 billion years ago.

Among the ingredients are metals, silicates and sulfides ... minerals found on earth such as olivine, enstatite and forsterite ... and organic materials as well. Brownlee didn't say much about the organics, apparently saving his thunder for the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in Texas later in March. But advance reports have indicated that organic materials make up 10 percent of the material recovered from Wild 2.

"We will announce something in March that people will probably discuss for 10, 20 years what the significance of it actually is," Brownlee told the attendees.

Among the other topics touched upon:

- The importance of science writing: Brownlee said that it was "incredibly important for our society to know about the science," and that science writers play an essential role in that process. He recalled how he himself was inspired to get into science by the Life magazine articles on the space effort back in the 1960s. "It's really a handful of science writers who communicate all that science."

- "Rare Earth" misunderstood: In 2000, Brownlee and UW paleontologist Peter Ward came out with a book claiming that the conditions required for the rise of intelligent life should arise extremely rarely in the universe. The chances are better for extraterrestrial microbial life, however, and Brownlee said that part of the claim was often left out by intelligent-design advocates who cite "Rare Earth" as supporting their views. He observed that "a lot of people talk about the book but they haven't read it."

- So are we alone? Brownlee speculated that intelligent life may exist somewhere else in the universe, but probably not in a place we can realistically reach. "We're not really alone, but if they're far enough away, we'll never be able to communicate with them or detect them."

- Quantum questions: Brownlee indicated that his next book would address some of the mysteries of quantum physics - including the "now it's here, now it's there" phenomenon known as quantum tunneling. "The sun will not work ... without quantum-mechanical tunneling," he said.

- Who's watching the scientists? Scandals such as the recent stem-cell fraud have cast a cloud over the scientific establishment, but Brownlee noted that science is a self-correcting enterprise. "There is a watchman, and that's nature. ... If you're cheating, someone will absolutely find out about it with time."

Mystery science theater reruns

Did you miss a cool science lecture at Town Hall? Not to worry: The Seattle Science Lectures at Town Hall are usually archived by the Seattle Channel. To catch up with cosmologist Simon ("Big Bang") Singh, or Roger ("Road to Reality") Penrose, or Malcolm ("Blink") Gladwell, or Jared Diamond's lecture from last year previewing "Collapse," just click on over to the Seattle Channel archive.

Science under Cover: Breaking into Books

NSWA member Michael C. Bradbury reports on Wednesday's
panel discussion on the book business....

Getting the skinny on becoming a book author is a tricky business and requires a strong spine. There are countless books to read and a mountain of information--some helpful, most useless--on the Internet. Add an interest in science and the task takes a quantum leap toward complexity. But, the Northwest Science Writers Association attempted to sort some of it out on Nov. 16 at Science under Cover: Breaking into Books.

Sasquatch Books editorial director Gary Luke led an esteemed panel, including literary agent Elizabeth Wales, author David Laskin, and University of Washington Press science acquisitions editor Jacqueline Ettinger, as they shared their thoughts on finding a market for books with scientific topics.

Wales says her prejudice is toward the writing. Ettinger sees a lot of great ideas but if the proposal does not demonstrate both the passion that comes from knowledge of a subject and an ability to make it accessible for a wide audience, she will not acquire the book.

Laskin took a slightly different tack, having garnered success by delving into weather-related stories including his most recent, Children of the Blizzard. He uses two litmus tests to vet his ideas. First, he starts to write about the idea. “If it engages me it is a good sign,” he says. The second test is whether he could imagine reading a review of the book in the New York Times. “Would I read a review of my own book? If not, then it might not be a good idea.”

When it comes to science books, trade publishers often accept that the science in a proposal is accurate and thorough. Academic presses, on the other hand, are required to send all proposals to experts for peer review so there is no room for fudging the science.

Laskin calls the book proposal a well-crafted lie. "In it you can promise the moon if you deliver the swiss cheese in the end."

Wales suggests reading a book like Susan Rabiner and Alfred Fortunato’s Thinking Like Your Editor: How to Write Great Serious Nonfiction and Get it Published to learn how to write a winning proposal. For her, that includes a story with a beginning, middle and end. It must have conflict and obstacles overcome. But above all, the proposal must compel the reader. "Make 'em laugh and cry," she says.

That's the key to a book contract, a big advance and perhaps if an author is lucky, a New York publishers feeding frenzy where wild bidding can net a book deal with lots of commas and zeros.

But for the first-time author or someone without national recognition--AKA a platform--advances can range from zero in the academic press to $50,000.

The panel all agreed that narrative non-fiction science books are hot right now--ranging from Salt and Cod to The Great Influenza.

"History and science are areas that people can relate to," says Laskin. "I like to read books that have a good story but also books where I can learn something."

Psst ... wanna write a book?

Tonight we're meeting at the 2100 Building for a panel on book writing, titled "Science Under Cover: Breaking Into Books." The event starts at 7 p.m.

Panelists include literary agent Elizabeth Wales, author David Laskin and book editor Jaqueline Ettinger. Moderated by Sasquatch Books editorial director Gary Luke. 2100 Building, 2100 24th Avenue S., Seattle. Free for NSWA members, $5 for non-members.

Stay tuned for a report after the event.